John Key took office three years ago amid global financial and economic mayhem. Then came earthquakes in Christchurch, a mine disaster and a ship grounding causing widespread environmental damage.
Another such concatenation of disasters is unlikely in the next three years — though financial and economic mayhem cannot be ruled out (whether the Greek crisis had really been resolved was unclear when this was written).
Public sector managers can expect faster and more far-reaching change if National gets a second term on November 26. This could be the biggest reshaping since the radical 1980s reforms.
One big driver is fiscal consolidation which requires the state to occupy a smaller share of the economy. Another is political instinct: three of the governing parties want a smaller state sector anyway.
When the Maori party won four seats in the 2005 election its president, Whata Winiata, said the Treaty partner had come to Parliament. In 2008, with five seats, it partnered with National in government. Its problem: those partnerships are unequal.
Its annual general meeting in late October will reflect that. Far from aspiring to seven seats on November 26, it will be defending the four it has left.
Peter Hughes moves on after 10 years at the top of the Ministry of Social Development at the end of September. He takes with him — to the academic School of Government and some other appointments — his pre-eminent reputation as a chief executive. And he’s still pushing change.
The Maori party reckons whanau ora a revolutionary social policy initiative. But Hughes already had established the base from which whanau ora’s aim of a wraparound service could be developed: Community Link centres.
Colin James on Key’s management in the context of the 2011 election for Management Magazine August 2011
John Key looks to be cruising to a second term. But will that term be as cruisey as the first? Will he then have to place bigger bets? Does he have at 50 the nerve he had at 25? Will his decentralised management style still work or he need to exercise stronger and more definitive leadership?
When National party delegates gather mid-month in their pre-election conference few will doubt that John Key will be Prime Minister after November 26. Many will strain not to consign Labour to a 20-something vote and dream out loud of one-party government.
There will be ritual admonitions from president Peter Goodfellow and Key not to take victory for granted and ritual rank-and-file promises not to. But highly positive polls, focus groups and buzz on the ground will have set a buoyant tone.
Foreign policy is trade, Sir Robert Muldoon said 35 years ago. Murray McCully and John Key have in effect been saying the same since they took office. Actually, trade is foreign policy — and foreign is domestic.
This was the import of a little-noticed recent speech by Treasury Deputy Secretary Gabriel Makhouf. The time when a government, especially of a small country, could separate international relations from the rest of its operations is long gone.
There are now two Maori parties, both pushing indigenous rights challenging the “mainstream” but from different perspectives. Our bicultural politics is getting more complicated.
Hone Harawira forms common cause with “socialist” advocates for state action to lift living standards at the “bottom of the heap”. The Maori party often proclaims the same ambitions but also has to keep onside the Maori upper crust and power elite which, some say, often doesn’t form common cause with bottom-of-the-heap Maori.
After the first Christchurch earthquake Bill English and John Key cut new spending for 2011-12 from $1.1 billion plus 2% to $700-$800 million. After the second earthquake they cut that to zero. This is not your usual election-year budget.
The election pitch in the budget will essentially be: you know the economy is in a hole, you know earthquakes have made the hole a lot deeper and so you know government (and household) finances have got tighter and you know a financially sober cabinet is the safest way out of the hole.
April is Australia-New Zealand month, with China thrown in — a variation on February, which was Australia-New Zealand-United States month. That highlights the external priorities which New Zealand has to balance in the 2010s.
New Zealand has regular “track 2” forums with Australia (the oldest, formed in 2004), the United States and Japan. They bring together business and other sector leaders, officials and ministers. They are unofficial, aimed at deepening connections and building a joint constituency for action on bilateral matters and combined actions abroad.