The world might get more disordered this weekend

On Saturday there is the Mt Roskill by-election. On Sunday there are two votes that could have a far bigger long-term effect.

John Key has campaigned hard in Mt Roskill to get Parmjeet Parmar up and get back the majority with ACT alone that last year’s Northland by-election took away.

Labour’s stakes are at least as high. It has slid in opinion polls this year, which a Mt Roskill loss or narrow win would compound.

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Green is the new blue. Can blue be the new green?

[Comments to Bluegreens forum with environmental organisations]

Green is the new blue. Or will be for those who want to be politically relevant in the 2020s.

When the Green party started out as the Values party in 1972, green was a “nice-to-have”. It was local. It mostly didn’t get in the way of expanding gross domestic product – except when tweed-jacketed conservatives joined with radicals to block the high dam on Lake Manapouri in 1970, as they did again in 2010 when Gerry Brownlee wanted to dig up conservation land for minerals and metals.

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Surprised? Get ready. More might be on the way

Donald Trump got it right: the United States presidential election was rigged.

He got fewer votes than Hillary Clinton but got elected because the system is distorted. We know about that: in 1978 and 1981 Labour got more votes than National but National ruled. MMP fixed that.

Trump was helped also by onerous registration and voting requirements, particularly in Republican-dominated states, which racial minorities and the less-well-off are least likely to meet (though the courts quashed some restrictions). Long waits to vote didn’t help.

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The standard-bearer of democracy no longer

For seven decades after 1945 United States proclaimed itself the global standard-bearer of democracy — and broadly was. No longer.

Deeds did not always match words. There were nefarious actions in Latin America — undermining the democratic Allende regime in Chile, for example — and at the interface with the Soviet Union — Vietnam, for example. In 2003 it jettisoned international law to invade Iraq, again proclaiming a democratising mission. (Wow!).

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Labour meets, needing to chart a forward path

This is not a great time to be a social democratic party in most rich liberal democracies. Can Labour start to climb out of that fug at its conference this weekend?

Look around. If old-Democrat-elitist Hillary Clinton wins the United States presidency next week, she will do so only because Donald Trump turns off more than she does. Large numbers see Democrats, once the party of social security, as complicit in their 2010s insecurity.

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Getting the terms of engagement right with Australia

A visiting Hong Kong democracy activist and former top public servant had this advice last week: “It is in each country’s interests to be clear about the terms of engagement.”

Anson Chan was talking about engagement with Hong Kong and its domineering master, China, which, she said, under Xi Jinping, is not upholding the 1997 “one-country-two-systems” undertaking when it took over the territory.

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Dribble politics: quenching policy hotspots

It’s the third term, for sure. Last week Michael Woodhouse dribbled some policy coolant on a political hotspot: hot immigration numbers. Judith Collins tried the same on police numbers.

Teeming immigration has nicely swelled economic growth statistics, which boost re-election chances in 2017.

But it has also kept wages low in some sectors through liberal issuance of holiday and temporary work visas, has contributed to careering house prices and added to the strain on underfunded health, education and social support services, not least for parents brought in to reunify families.

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Do capitalists want to keep capitalism healthy?

Justin Lester is young, intelligent and gawkily personable — mayor of Wellington against what some thought long odds. What could he do for Labour nationally if he was in Parliament?

Certainly, senior Labour figures drew attention to him through his two council terms.

He, Phil Goff in Auckland and Lianne Dalziel’s easy win in Christchurch and higher Labour-Green numbers on big-city councils have lifted morale a little in a Labour party fearing a fourth term in opposition.

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