The chiefs of the British, Australian and New Zealand Treasuries meet here next week. They will have much to discuss. The world economy is not as rosy as a year ago.
For this country, in debt up to the eyeballs to foreigners, that is a worry. For households, also in debt up to their eyeballs buying overpriced houses or using houses they already own to raise cash to splurge, the squeeze is already on.
This month’s scare is oil, a resource. The long-range scare is climate change, an environmental issue. But bigger than oil and more proximate than climate change is water.
Water is a resource issue and an environmental issue — and potentially a cause of conflict.
In our pluvial country water is not top-of-mind. There are occasional droughts and less water is expected in the east this century. Some catchments are overallocated or badly managed. But, with political will (so far lacking), we can easily manage.
The point of a group is to be more than the sum of its parts. That goes for a family, a sports team, a company — and a nation.
Otherwise, there are just individuals. Cause for thought as a new year begins and we resolve to do better.
The point of leadership is create, cajole, coax or corral that surplus from a group: points on the board, profits and prospects, a strong economy and clear sense of ourselves.
The Parole Board delivered the National party this year a New Year present: murderer Graeme Burton. At year’s end it has sent a Christmas present: pack rapist Peter McNamara.
In between the justice system showered gifts on National’s Simon Power. And the police gave radicals a free hit by mis-hitting “terrorists”.
One symptom of a government in trouble is a propensity to whack public servants.
Symptom: Trevor Mallard, under pressure over the Clare Curran affair, grossly abused Erin Leigh. Mallard lost: he now looks in need of deep, rehabilitative rest. The government lost: bullying is bad and looks bad.
Symptom: David Cunliffe, under pressure from “crisis” stories about Wellington hospital, condemned the hospital’s board, which is in part government-appointed.
Michael Cullen is at last “sustainable” — eight years into the Finance Minister’s job, come next Monday. “Green” is now “progressive” in his value-system instead of wacky or unworldly.
That is, “green” can now mean “more” instead of “less”, which he thinks the Greens often imply. He says “sustainability” is the third stage of post-1984 economic development.
Helen Clark completes eight years as Prime Minister on December 10. Will she still be Prime Minister a year from now?
To do that, of course, she has to be able to form a government after the election, which must be held by November 15.
The polls in 2007 have not been encouraging. In late spring the average gap between National and Labour was around 11%.
The Greens put their finger on the deepest flaw in the Electoral Finance Bill: that the poachers are playing gamekeepers. The MPs think they own your elections.
Next year the Prime Minister, assuming the Queen’s prerogative, will play cat and mouse with the date of your election.
She did once express interest in a fixed term for Parliament, as in, for example, Germany and New South Wales, two systems ours resembles. New Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd also favours a fixed term. But she tied it to extending the present three-year maximum to four years, which New South Wales has (and Rudd wants) but which voters here have decisively rejected twice in the past 40 years.
One thing won’t change: the stampede of New Zealanders across the Tasman to make a living. A wage in Australia under Kevin Rudd will stay around a third higher than one in New Zealand for a while yet at least.
That is one iron rule of the relationship with Australia for now. The resources boom, the larger critical mass of its major cities and the riches of its federal and state treasuries have showered wealth on Australians — and on New Zealanders who join them, as they are free to do in our common labour market.
New Zealand voters, like Australian voters, tend to go for in-command leaders. Kevin Rudd is that. Helen Clark is. Is John Key yet?
Key comes up to his anniversary as leader next Tuesday. He has less than a year now to acquire prime ministerial authority.
Being fresh, youngish, a charmer and a centrist has been the easy part. And he has help from the financial squeeze on households and slippage in Clark’s political management: smacking, tax cuts, David Benson-Pope and the bizarre drafting of the Electoral Finance Bill.