Eighteen months ago John Howard was much eulogised on his tenth anniversary as Australian Prime Minister. Now many of those eulogisers are polishing his political epitaph.
There is, quite apart from opinion polls, a discernible shift in public attitudes and an alternative, Labor’s Kevin Rudd, who seems to measure up.
Little noticed in Helen Clark’s reshuffle was her promotion of Pete Hodgson — to the post of minister of innovation in all but in name.
Mind you, she didn’t actually draw attention to it until her keynote speech on Saturday at the Labour party’s conference when she said he was “in effect” minister of innovation.
Helen Clark has a year at most to repair the damage. That means, first off, four months to get the poll gap with National safely into single figures.
Her party, conferencing this month, is not in a mood to go out of office next year, either through exasperation with its cabinet or weariness. The party has members and money and a pleasure in power, even if “radical” has given way to “incremental”.
Left columnist Chris Trotter was invited to lead a “new thinking” workshop on “the media” at the Labour party conference starting on Friday. Had he not pulled out, this would have complemented his paper in January at the party’s summer school for new thinking, where he led a chorus of the socialist marching hymn, the “Red Flag”.
Now I know why people get killed on Centennial Highway along the coast between Paekakariki and Pukerua Bay north of Wellington, despite the facts that there is a 70km limit its entire length, that much of it is divided by a wire barrier and that the rest has double yellow lines separating two single carriageways. On my drive up to Taupo today (Saturday 27 October 2007) I was passed twice, first the way north and later on the way south, by cars going in the same direction as I was. The cars had to cross the double yellow lines to do that. I was doing around 70km on each occasion.
The National party’s interest in New Zealand First’s conference this weekend will be in the prospect for rubbing along in Parliament after 2008. But a much bigger support challenge looms for National elsewhere.
It has long been taken as read in senior National circles that if National needs the numbers after the next election and New Zealand First survives the election, Winston Peters will stay on as Foreign Minister.
Last week two energy strategies, next week a White Paper titled “Our future with Asia”. What do these have in common? And is there a place for Europe?
One clue comes from Australia, now heading into a crunch election.
A new study by the Australian Strategic Studies Institute (ASPI) states that we are in “the third energy shock of the post-war [post-1945] era”. This differs from those of 1973 and 1979 in being driven by rapidly rising demand, not constraints by suppliers.
Colin James book review for NZ Herald Perspectives page for 12 October 2007
Brian Easton, Globalisation and the Wealth of Nations, Auckland University Press, 234pp, $49.99
We are all global now, aren’t we? Well, actually, no. We’re still, the great majority of us, solidly local. For most, “globalisation” is what other people do.
Wrench the dazed gaze off black Cardiff Arms and flick to the town hall. It’s local elections time.
If you take local politics seriously or have a particular gripe or just a sense of civic opportunity or duty, you have probably already voted. If not, you probably won’t and you will be in the majority nationwide.
Do you think humanity will do anything serious about climate change? Does humanity think it much matters whether it does or doesn’t?
Note: “humanity”, not “New Zealanders”. We here can have only the tiniest effect. Anything we do can be relevant only in solidarity with what those in far more populous countries do.