Do Labour and the Alliances swap votes?

Random thought, 18 May 2001

It is part of the political folklore in the Alliance and other places that Labour and the Alliance scrap over some of the same votes. Thus when one goes up, some of that is won at the other’s expense.

And intuitively, this folklore seems to hold merit.

Moreover, in the mid-1990s it did seem from the polls that Labour’s recovery leading up to the 1996 election was at least partly at the Alliance’s expense.

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Jim's bank: The real point is the opportunity cost

Random Thought 22 February 2001

The real point about the Kiwibank is its opportunity cost to taxpayers. If $80 million is invested in yet another bank to an overbanked country that $80 million is not available to fix bad roads or build hospitals or schools.

This point escaped Richard Prebble who argued the $80 million should go instead on education or police services. But that is current spending, not capital spending, and turns up in a different place on the government’s books.

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The Treaty is No 1 healthgiver

Random Thought Dec 11 2000

The Health Strategy released at 3.30pm 11 December is a slender document, unburdened by hard-edged thinking but burdened with some politically soggy tendencies that may well lead to some telling attacks from ACT and National.

Nowhere is there any suggestion people might take some individual responsibility for seeing to their own good health and for the consequences of good and bad decision-making. The burden for seeing individuals’ health is squarely on the state’s shoulders. Prevention is very much the junior arm of this government’s health policy though it does make interpersonal, family, school and community violence one of its 13 “priority population health objectives”.

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Women at the top

For the Far Eastern Economic Review

“It’s a boy!” cooed the Dominion’s headline reporting the appointment of Terence Arnold as Solicitor-General on September 8. That this was thought remarkable tells the story of women’s monopolisation of the four top administrative and legal posts in New Zealand.

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The new government’s defence policy

Colin James for Defence Quarterly, March issue

Foreign Minister Phil Goff says cancelling the F16 contract is just “reprioritising expenditure”. Actually, it marks a strategic shift.

Few on the left like the armed forces, which most of their persuasion associate with militarism, the instrument of aggression and oppression. They dismiss any military threat and so don’t feel they need even to see the forces as guard dogs. They are most comfortable with the armed forces as rescuers, through peacekeeping and peacemaking, a role which transforms militarism into humanitarianism.

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the New Orthodoxy

Colin James for the Independent

The revolution is over — that much Richard Prebble, Bill English, Helen Clark and Jim Anderton agree on, though from very different angles. Now what?

The “what” is the deep agenda in this election. The great majority of the electorate has settled that it doesn’t want to go back to 1984 — maybe not even to 1990. But it is unsure where it wants to go from here and the big parties are jostling to draw a map.

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Politics for the Millenium

Colin James on politics and economics for NZ Books millennium issue

Coming into the twentieth century, the battle for the future was between socialists and triumphalist trumpeters of a “bigger and better Britain” here at the end of the world. The route out is likely to be along some muddy “third way” avoiding radicals to left and right — or into a “new conservatism”. Visionaries have given way to pygmies.

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The Quigley Committee

Colin James for Defence Quarterly: October 1999

A funny thing happened on the way to the APEC summit. Peaceniks marched in the streets demanding war. And shortly afterwards off our warriors went, under-equipped with out-of-date gear.

The East Timor incident which was the focus of this peace-seeking warmongering highlighted an evolving defence debate which has brought us either to the verge of a major policy shift or, if not, at least at a point of sharp disagreement between amateurs and professionals. That is an unstable state of affairs.

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